Where to find the innovation?
Since the introduction of ChatGPT by OpenAI, not even the sky is the limit for human imagination. There is not a single company nor a product nor a news outlet not talking about AI and the immeasurable benefits this will provide to humanity, Earth, the Solar system, and surrounding galaxies. Of course, it’s still with the disclaimer of dangerous side effects, uncontrollable biases, and general hallucinations. Venture money is pouring into AI with the hope of returns not seen since ... ever.
It feels like until now, we haven’t been able to find anything to get excited about. Yes, there was Bitcoin, there was the Metaverse, and the potential of VR. In April 2022, yours truly even penned 'Innovation is like Waldo: hard to find' to describe the moribund state of what was presented as an innovation.
However, the Innovation Question hasn't disappeared and one should keep asking what's next. You can be an entrepreneur looking to build your next startup, a VC looking to formulate your investment thesis, or an investor looking to find the next potential Google.
One place you can find inspiration is the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). Its stated mission 'to make pivotal investments in breakthrough technologies for national security' might give some people pause. Or they might decide not to contribute to any invention supported by the US military. Gentle reminder that the same organization provided funding to projects that allowed us to search on the Internet, get tested and obtain a COVID-19 flu shot, and use GPS to safely navigate to desired locations. It provides a balanced view of that organization.
Just go read the list of past and current research projects. You’ll find over 100 categories ranging from AI, Chemistry, Cyber, High-Performance Computing, Quantum, or Supply Chain. The names and descriptions of some of the projects provide further glimpses of what we can see in the future.
Here is a small sample:
Intrinsic Cognitive Security - The ICS program develops computational science to build tactical mixed reality systems that protect against cognitive attack. The core technical hypothesis of the program is that formal methods can be extended with cognitive guarantees and models to protect mixed reality users from cognitive attacks.
Thinking about starting the next antivirus company, this would protect users while they are visiting the Metaverse using the new Apple AR goggles. If you think it is far-fetched, it was well described in Neal Stephenson's book Snow Crash. And if the security and privacy of Facebook are any indication of the future, you know you will need it.
Exploratory Models Of Human-AI Teams - An Artificial Intelligence Exploration (AIE) Opportunity, inviting submissions of innovative basic or applied research concepts in the technical domain of Exploratory Models of Human-AI Teams.
While many brands are promoting the marketing term, Copilot, we are still far away from AI augmenting and supporting humans. However, once we solve those challenges, the opportunities are endless.
DARPA Work Force Futures - This will be used to identify innovative new approaches, structures, and methods of engagement that organizations can employ in the development of new workforce models. This Request for Information (RFI) is seeking white papers from organizations with extensive experience in helping high-tech entities conduct internal assessments and develop alternative workforce models.
I am sure that every HR department will be interested in this research. Beyond that, many consulting companies will gladly provide the tools and services to address this.
It is difficult to predict what will become the next big thing. Sometimes it is hard to see or recognize the patterns. Perhaps there are none. Maybe you’ll find your next groundbreaking idea in places you didn't expect, and this will become your next recurrent pattern.