Quo vadis, Apple?

In the world of technology, there are things which are getting better, faster, bigger with every new release. Our computers are faster. They have more memory, more storage, more pixels. And then there are things which swing like a pendulum.

(Note: I first talked about this model of technology progression, not as a line, or hockey stick, but as a spiral where patterns repeat in Forbes: Netflix's Pipeline Problem: How It Can Win The Arms Race Against Disney.)

When the swing takes long enough, people forget about what came before. They claim that this time, things are completely new or different.

One great example of this recurring phenomena: we saw the evolution from mainframe computers to PC's and then a move back to the cloud (yes, back. If you thought cloud computing was a relatively new concept, it was first implemented in the 1960s). In this swing of the pendulum, smartphones are the next green screen terminals, with phone lines, fiber cables and 5G networks connecting them.

That leads us to the question about what next we can expect from Apple.

Apple is an uncommon, perhaps unique kind of company, which controls the whole system of its technology production from beginning to end. Other companies have to work extra-hard to coordinate a strategy like this, among themselves.

What makes Apple so different?

Apple realized that it can no longer depend on others to make its chips and started designing them on its own. It will allow Apple to align the underlying OS between all its devices and simplify the lives of its developers. More importantly, the chips have (and they will of course get much better) built-in support for machine learning algorithms.

This means that Siri will now live much closer to you and less in the cloud.

Combine this with another development that’s been in the works for a little while: Apple is building its own search engine.

One reason for this search engine development: it began around the time that DoJ proceedings began against Google. It seemed likely that Apple wanted to avoid the same scrutiny from regulators. Perhaps, it was one of the side effects. But more importantly, Apple needs its own source of information for Siri. This is the same reason why it is working hard on its own map solution.

Taken together, all of these changes mean that Siri will be the unifying interface between all devices you might use, from your laptop to your car or at work. Siri will always be there.

Siri already can ask a qualifying question after your ambiguous question. However, soon it will start searching for information even before you ask your next question.

The capabilities of phones and other devices are reaching the point where we can have a conversation with them. That’s a very powerful way to unleash our learning and creativity.

It will be up to us to take full advantage of it.

And that's the recurrent pattern.