The future of Quantum Computing. Neither here nor there

We haven't talked about quantum computing on the digital pages of Recurrent Patterns for a while. It is time to check what's new and hot in the deep freeze boxes with quantum chips.

Let's start with IBM - Not much to report. IBM spent most of last year working on better tools to make programming its quantum computer easier. Despite the flowery language describing how easy it is to use now, it is still in the realm of research and academia.

Next we have D-Wave with its announcement 'Beyond Classical: D-Wave First to Demonstrate Quantum Supremacy on Useful, Real-World Problem.' Their claim is that a 'D-Wave annealing computer performs magnetic materials simulation in minutes that would take nearly one million years and more than the world’s annual electricity consumption to solve using a classical supercomputer built with GPU clusters.'

The term Quantum Supremacy implies that a quantum computer can solve a problem much much faster than a regular (or classical) computer. As you look at D-Wave's announcement headline, please note the words - 'Useful,' 'Real-World Problem.' Google claimed supremacy of its quantum computer in October 2019 with 'Quantum Supremacy Using a Programmable Superconducting Processor,' where the machine performed '... target computation in 200 seconds, and from measurements in our experiment we determined that it would take the world’s fastest supercomputer 10,000 years to produce a similar output.'

To which IBM responded with 'On "quantum supremacy"' where IBM stated that 'We argue that an ideal simulation of the same task can be performed on a classical system in 2.5 days and with far greater fidelity. This is in fact a conservative, worst-case estimate, and we expect that with additional refinements the classical cost of the simulation can be further reduced.'

You can see that achieving quantum supremacy is not for the faint of heart and bits and qubits are regularly spilled during these fights.

To prove my point, New Scientist journal published 'Doubts cast over D-Wave's claim of quantum computer supremacy,' where they explain that a team from New York University '... have performed similar calculations on a normal laptop in just two hours, using a field of mathematics called tensor networks. These networks essentially reduce the amount of data a simulation requires, drastically cutting the computational power required to run it.'

Once you say Quantum Supremacy, the gloves are off.

Another non-supremacy related announcement came from PsiQuantum, which just raised $750 million. Its claim to fame and $6 billion valuation is that they can make quantum processors using traditional methods which are used to manufacture components for the communication industry. In the announcement, PsiQuantum says it is making millions of quantum computing chips and that it has 'cracked one of the crucial challenges in quantum computing: a method to manufacture quantum chips at the volumes needed to build commercially viable machines.' I must admit, it is a puzzling announcement. I have never heard from any other quantum computer company before that that's the problem facing the industry. You always hear about decoherence (loss of quantum properties), error correction, scalability, and the development of quantum algorithms.

In any case, PsiQuantum, with its bold statement that it’s 'Building the world’s first useful quantum computers,' also mentions that its machine will be ready by 2029 or sooner. The 'sooner' qualifier refers to the company announcement from 2023 that the first computer will be ready by 2027.

While we are at the predictions, the latest one, from February 2025. 'Google says commercial quantum computing applications arriving within five years.' Don't worry, I'll be here to report.

Not to be outdone with predictions, Mr. Jensen Huang, CEO of the famous NVIDIA - yes, the company raking in money thanks to AI - sent the stock of quantum computing companies to tailspin when he shared his prediction. In January 2025 he said that 'If you kind of said 15 years... that'd probably be on the early side. If you said 30, it's probably on the late side. But if you picked 20, I think a whole bunch of us would believe it.'

You say more than 5 years and gloves are off as well. The CEO of D-Wave even issued an official press release saying '... Jensen Huang has a misunderstanding of quantum. While he might be right about other quantum companies, he is dead wrong about D-Wave.'

... and you thought the world of quantum computers was a boring one.

But wait, it gets stranger. A few weeks ago, the same Mr. Huang, still the CEO of NVIDIA, announced that his company is opening a quantum computing research lab in Boston. Something had to change and Mr. Huang is now a big proponent of technology which, in his words, will be ready between 15 and 30 years from now.

One might speculate that he sees a future where AI is not as hot and he will be sitting on inventory of chips which nobody is buying or he's hedging his bets that maybe, one day, quantum computers might be useful and he needs to show his board of directors that he has a long term plan for never ending growth.

To close the report on the state of quantum computers, we should mention the latest from Microsoft, which announced in February 2025 its chip Majorana 1. The claim to fame is Topological Core architecture which has a clear path to scale to a million qubits - naturally - in years, not decades. It currently has 8 qubits. To follow the Recurrent Pattern in this industry, in 'Physicists cast doubt on measurements validating Microsoft’s first quantum chip, Majorana 1,' physicist at the University of St. Andrews said that 'any company claiming to have a topological qubit in 2025 is essentially selling a fairy tale [that] undermines the field of quantum computation.'

I am telling you. Tough crowd.

And, by the way, Amazon's AWS announced its quantum chip 'Ocelot' with up to 90% better error correction. Good.

There you have it, that's a snapshot of the quantum computer industry. The recurrent pattern? We are 5 years from having a fully scaled quantum computer with millions of qubits, ready to tackle new problems. I can't wait!