Big Bada Boom, Christmas 2032?

Written By Vaclav Vincalek

There is a chance that Earth will get hit by an asteroid on Dec. 22, 2032.

That's the latest non-AI news, completely drowned in noise about ... I guess everything else.

For your convenience, here are the headlines:

While reading about your chances, you might listen to background music about chances, and calculate the odds yourself.

We haven’t covered astronomy-related things for some time (except perhaps the astronomical amount of money spent on AI) and this - potential - collision with an asteroid is a nice break from the wild world of technology.

You might find it interesting that NASA and the European Space Agency have offices dedicated to keeping us safe from - or at least aware about - dangers coming from outer space. These organizations - the Planetary Defense Coordination Office and the European Space Agency’s Planetary Defence Office - together with professional and amateur astronomers from around the world are pointing their telescopes to track the Asteroid 2024 YR4 (and everything else they can find.)

What I like about this story is the difference in reporting of the same event. While the headlines above follow the news media motto - 'if it bleeds, it leads', NASA scientists keep it more to the facts:

While mainstream media write about:

  • '.. the asteroid is likely not terribly large by asteroid standards. The little asteroid that unexpectedly exploded over Chelyabinsk in Russia, causing damage but no deaths in 2013, was roughly 20 metres across – 2024 YR4 is bigger than that but still vastly smaller than the 10km-diameter object that caused the extinction of the dinosaurs. If 2024 YR4 hits, it would cause regional, not global, destruction. And with years to prepare, people have time to evacuate the area.'

  • 'reason not to panic – the surface of the Earth is mostly water.'

  • the asteroid '... could likely hit somewhere along a ‘risk corridor’ which NASA has identified as stretching across the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, African, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia.'

  • 'Cities on this trajectory include Bogota in Colombia, whose metropolitan area is home to over 11.6 million people, the Mumbai metropolitan area in India which has a population of 18.4 million and Dhaka in Bangladesh, home to over 23.9 million.'

NASA simply states facts without much emotions:

  • 'For the impact probability to drop to zero, the Earth would need to fall outside of the range of potential locations of asteroid 2024 YR4 on Dec. 22, 2032.'

and adds another comforting tidbit:

  • 'Additionally, there is also a – much lower — chance this asteroid could impact the Moon. Current calculations estimate this impact probability to be 0.8%.'

Less comforting is reading the NASA Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) about this asteroid.  

  • 'If the asteroid entered the atmosphere over a populated region, an airburst of an object on the smaller side of the size range, about 130 - 200 feet (40 - 60 meters) could shatter windows or cause minor structural damage across a city. An asteroid about 300 feet (90 meters) in size, which is much less likely, could cause more severe damage, potentially collapsing residential structures across a city and shattering windows across larger regions.'

And seeing opportunity to learn in every situation:

  • 'This is an opportunity to observe the science of planetary defense in action.'

Of course, this is not the only asteroid coming towards us. For your excitement here is a list of objects which can potentially hit us in the next 100 years. Just in case you need something bigger to worry about.

With every Recurrent Pattern post, I am trying to end on a positive note (my recurrent pattern, which is harder than you think) and here is one for you. The latest from NASA - Additional Observations Continue to Reduce Chance of Asteroid Impact in 2032 - puts the chance down to 0.28%. I'll keep you posted if anything changes.

Vaclav Vincalek
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