Apple goes skiing
Apple has announced a new product - the Vision Pro - and with it, a new era of spatial computing.
At this moment, you have two options. If you believe that this is another revolution in computing, you can start saving for next year to pay $3,500 for this technologically amazing product. If you believe that this product is expensive ski goggles (with string attached) with no practical use, you just saved $3,500. Believers in both camps will be ridiculing each other.
What are the possible ways this product can go forward?
Let’s set aside the hyperbolic messaging which Apple is known for, like 'Choose from a selection of beautiful landscapes, or magically replace your ceiling with a clear, open sky.' Now we can focus on the steep path Apple has to climb to achieve the glorious peak.
The first hurdle on that path: the product is not ready.
At the conference, Apple was showing a bigger laptop, faster computers and new chips. Each of them is an improvement. However, Apple needed something big to show what kind of awesome company it is. Even a new band for the Apple Watch doesn't create the wow moment.
With the Vision Pro, Apple showed a product which won't be ready for another year. Behind the scenes, everybody is scrambling to be able to ship something. It’s one thing to make a few prototypes. It’s another thing to prepare to ship millions of units.
In order for the Apple Goggles to become the next revolution and sell to millions around the globe, what would have to be true? For one, there would have to be applications which would make the device a must.
To that end, during the keynote speech, Mr. Cook brought to the stage the CEO of Disney, Robert Iger. We learned that when we buy the goggles, the streaming service from Disney will be available.
In that case, Apple should hurry up. The latest breakdown of the numbers of subscribers for Disney+ shows it is in decline. The last number for Q2, 2023 sits at 158 million. To access the content from magic kingdom costs $11.99 per month. Fine. So, what will be the extra thing that would get you to pay another $3,500?
Part of the announcement was the introduction of visionOS, the 'first' spatial operating system. It extends the family of operating systems (macOS, iOS, iPadOS) to include eyes, hands and voice. Considering how limited the current functionality of Siri (Apple's voice assistant) is and slow incremental progress in building new features, it is hard to imagine how the other navigation is going to work on this massive scale.
Meanwhile, the video introducing the goggles shows a man typing on a virtual keyboard. If that's the future, Apple would have had a MacBook without physical keys a long time ago. (The same video mentioned that you should be able to use your physical keyboard as well, so at least they are hedging their bets.)
People have started comparing the Apple goggles with the iPhone, which truly changed our relationship with technology. Unlike the iPhone which you can take anywhere, the goggles are usable only when you are in a confined space or are stationary. Perhaps Apple is predicting another pandemic where people will be under lock down again or will want to spend more time isolated from others.
When Apple introduced the iPhone, it also introduced the App Store. The bet Apple is making that somebody out there will create reasons for anyone to spend $3,500.
Apple demonstrated how the goggles will provide viewing space unparalleled with anything on the market today and everything will be just a touch away.
What Apple actually showed us is an early prototype of technology which is looking for a problem to solve.
Apple packed many innovative features into this product, but it is still only for consuming content. Unless the content is delivered in a new, amazing way, it will be short-lived curiosity.
Remember the Nintendo Wii? That’s the game console where you could interact with games, play music or practice yoga. The most popular game was the sports bundle and sold 82 millions. What movies and games and any other content will need to be available in order to create mass adoption and at the same time to justify the spend? Is the plan to replace TVs and movie theaters?
Apple is hoping that with its size, industry partnerships and unlimited amount of money it will create another product category where everyone has failed so far. Apple is hoping for a miracle. The company is trying to create a new pattern, where people disconnect from the real world and hopefully find the creativity to enrich their lives. I just don't see it happening.